An In-Depth Exposé of State Capture, Institutional Decay, and the War on Accountability

By Prof. MarkAnthony Nze
Special Investigative Exposé

Investigative Journalist | Public Intellectual | Global Governance Analyst

 

Executive Summary

This comprehensive investigative exposé unveils a deeply entrenched system of corruption, institutional decay, and elite impunity under the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Grounded in verified public data, insider accounts, whistleblower testimonies, and classified documents, it exposes how state power has been systematically weaponized to protect privilege, suppress dissent, and undermine the basic tenets of democratic governance.

Spanning twelve rigorously documented sections, the report details how Nigeria’s anti-corruption institutions—particularly the EFCC and ICPC—have been captured and politicized, stripping them of independence and credibility. It analyzes the opaque restructuring of the NNPCL, the militarization of procurement, and the executive’s tightening grip on the judiciary. It further chronicles the growing hostility toward whistleblowers and journalists, the collapse of transparency frameworks, and the hollowing out of civic space.

At the heart of this exposé lies a sobering statistic: over 133 million Nigerians now endure multidimensional poverty. While public hospitals lack basic drugs, schools fall into disrepair, and insecurity spreads unchecked, political elites operate within a fortified bubble of impunity—fueled by bloated defense budgets, ghost contracts, and loyalty-based patronage.

This is not the story of a failing government. It is the portrait of a regime that has reengineered failure into a governing model—deliberate, extractive, and hostile to reform.

The report culminates in a robust 12-point reform blueprint, calling for urgent institutional restructuring: restoration of judicial independence, transparency in public procurement, legal protection for whistleblowers, a political finance overhaul, and enhanced civil society protections.

“Nigeria: Corruption, Collapse, and the Crisis Under Tinubu” is not just an exposé—it is a national alarm bell. Nigeria stands at a perilous crossroads. Without immediate corrective action, the erosion of integrity, trust, and governance may become irreversible. Reform is no longer a policy option. It is a condition for survival.

 

Part One: The Broken Promise

The Inheritance of Rot

When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023, his inaugural address struck a hopeful tone. He pledged a new era of prudent governance, transparency, and economic revitalization. “We shall govern prudently, with a clear focus on service, progress, and people-centered development,” he declared.

But within months, the façade of reform began to crack.

Rather than dismantle Nigeria’s deeply entrenched systems of mismanagement, Tinubu’s administration entrenched them further—recycling opaque financial practices, deepening elite control over national institutions, and reviving a governance model that prioritizes loyalty over accountability.

Public Trust in Freefall

Initially buoyed by optimistic rhetoric, public confidence in the administration plummeted rapidly. By December 2023, a nationwide survey conducted by NOI Polls found that 63% of Nigerians believed corruption had worsened since Tinubu took office. Trust in government had declined by 47% compared to June 2023.

A Budget Built for Bureaucracy, Not Development

According to BudgIT’s 2024 analysis, Tinubu’s first full-year federal budget leaned heavily toward administrative overheads rather than developmental investment. The numbers tell a familiar story of misplaced priorities:

Budget Category	% Allocation (2024)
Recurrent Expenditures	48.3%
Capital Projects	25.7%
Debt Servicing	21.5%
Others (Special Funds)	4.5%

Nearly half of the total budget was consumed by recurrent costs such as travel, maintenance, and administrative overheads, while capital expenditures—critical for infrastructure and long-term growth—received barely a quarter of total funding. This imbalance closely mirrors Tinubu’s tenure as governor of Lagos State, where flashy announcements often masked underperformance in actual capital delivery.

 

The Lagos Governance Model Goes National

At the heart of Tinubu’s federal strategy lies a familiar blueprint—one shaped during his time as Lagos governor and now exported to Abuja. That model, characterized by revenue monopolization, contract opacity, and privatized tax collection, has now permeated institutions like the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

The case of Alpha Beta Consulting—a private firm accused of siphoning billions in Lagos state tax revenues—continues to cast a long shadow. In a 2018 whistleblower suit, former Alpha Beta executive Dapo Apara alleged that the firm had laundered over ₦100 billion, manipulated contract awards, and operated without legislative oversight. Though the case stalled in court, the pattern it revealed remains highly relevant today.

Similar concerns have reemerged at the federal level.

In 2024, a National Assembly committee flagged an ₦85 billion e-payment infrastructure contract allegedly awarded to a shell company linked to a former Lagos-based consultant. There was no record of competitive bidding, and procurement records were withheld from FOI inquiries. Insiders noted striking parallels between the contract’s design and previous Alpha Beta frameworks.

Governance by Patronage

Rather than reforming procurement processes and public finance systems, Tinubu’s presidency has effectively nationalized a state-level patronage model. Under this system, financial contracts are closely held, oversight is minimal, and political loyalty determines access to state resources.

The core principles of modern public finance—transparency, competition, and accountability—have been supplanted by a logic of consolidation and control. The “Lagos model” now operates at scale: national institutions have been reshaped to serve elite networks, while the public is left bearing the cost of inefficiency, corruption, and stalled development.

 

Part Two: The Hijacking of Institutions

EFCC: From Watchdog to Weapon

Once celebrated as Nigeria’s premier anti-graft agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has suffered a dramatic erosion of credibility under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. In June 2023, Tinubu abruptly suspended EFCC Chairman Abdulrasheed Bawa on ambiguous grounds of “abuse of office”—a move widely seen as less about reform and more about political cleansing.

In Bawa’s place, the president appointed Ola Olukoyede, a lawyer with prior ties to the commission and a former Chief of Staff to ex-EFCC Chairman Ibrahim Magu. Olukoyede’s appointment was met with immediate concern from transparency advocates, given his perceived closeness to the political establishment and his lack of field investigative experience.

Critics contend that the EFCC’s prosecutorial independence has withered under Olukoyede’s leadership. High-profile investigations into six APC-affiliated figures—spanning alleged misappropriation of school feeding program funds, illicit offshore transfers, and inflated procurement contracts—have reportedly been paused without explanation.

A 2024 policy analysis by Afropolitan Journals, titled “The Political Capture of Nigeria’s Anti-Graft Machinery,” delivered a stark verdict:

“The EFCC is now functioning less as a legal watchdog and more as a political weapon. Its prosecutorial decisions increasingly mirror the interests of the presidency.”

While ruling party allies benefit from prolonged silence or inaction, opposition figures have faced aggressive, often questionable, legal pursuit. In October 2024, Debo Ologunagba, National Publicity Secretary of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), was detained over vague allegations concerning campaign finance irregularities—without formal charge or disclosure of evidence.

In sharp contrast, a ₦160 billion diversion case involving a serving APC minister remains conspicuously dormant. No formal charges have been filed. No court appearances have taken place. The silence is not procedural—it is strategic.

Judiciary Under Siege

The judiciary—traditionally seen as the final institutional safeguard in democratic societies—is itself buckling under the weight of political interference. The Tinubu administration, critics argue, has adopted a strategy of soft capture: not through legislative reform, but through coercive transfers, delayed promotions, and veiled intimidation.

A defining moment came in February 2025, when the Federal High Court in Abuja dismissed a ₦48 billion corruption case involving a former Senate President, long considered an ally of Tinubu. The court cited “procedural irregularities” as the reason for termination, despite the case being backed by more than 1,200 pages of evidence, including audited financial statements and corroborated bank records.

Observers, including leading legal scholars and civil society groups, denounced the ruling as emblematic of a judiciary no longer immune to political winds.

In its 2025 Nigeria Institutional Integrity Report, Chatham House issued a sobering assessment:

“A culture of judicial timidity and political pressure has emerged. Judges who defy executive interests are reassigned or stalled.”

Supporting this claim, at least three senior judges known for issuing rulings against government positions were quietly transferred to distant or under-resourced jurisdictions without public explanation. The pattern suggests less a coincidence and more a deliberate reconfiguration of judicial independence.

As one high-ranking judicial officer remarked under anonymity:

“We are no longer arbiters of justice. We are actors in a script—and the script is written elsewhere.”

 

Part Three: Oil, Opacity, and the Billion-Dollar Hole

NNPCL and the New Face of Unaccountability

The transformation of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) into the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 was heralded as a watershed moment for transparency and accountability in Nigeria’s oil sector. In reality, under President Bola Tinubu, this restructuring has deepened opacity, insulated key actors from oversight, and enabled the unchecked accumulation of wealth through opaque transactions and unauthorized deductions.

Rather than curb the historic misuse of petroleum revenues, the PIA’s provisions—particularly those requiring public disclosure, external audits, and legislative oversight—have largely gone unenforced. The rebranded NNPCL has become less transparent than its predecessor, shielded by new layers of corporate-style legal protections while still operating as a state monopoly.

A Year of Vanishing Billions

According to the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), the country lost over $3 billion in 2023 due to oil theft, underreported exports, and non-transparent subsidy practices. This was despite President Tinubu’s public pronouncement on May 29, 2023, that “subsidy is gone.”

Yet, behind the scenes, NNPCL continued to process secretive “under-recovery” payments—effectively backdoor subsidies—without public disclosure or legislative approval. In a September 2023 Senate hearing, it was revealed that over ₦2.8 trillion in subsidy-equivalent expenses were executed without any independent audit or clear appropriation path.

The 2023 NEITI Audit Report highlighted staggering financial gaps:

Category	Amount	Remarks
Unremitted Oil Revenues (2022–23)	₦4.36 trillion	Not transferred to the Federation Account (FAAC)
NNPCL Direct Deductions	₦1.2 trillion	Executed without legislative appropriation
License Renewal Shortfalls	₦384 billion	Missing proceeds from IOC renewals
Untraced Export Proceeds	$3.9 billion (USD)	Linked to opaque swap deals with foreign traders

 

In a 2024 press briefing, NEITI Executive Secretary Ogbonnaya Orji issued a rare rebuke:

“What we’re seeing is not just a lack of transparency but a deliberate subversion of financial discipline in the sector.”

The Disappearing Subsidy Savings

The subsidy removal of 2023, which triggered fuel price hikes from ₦185/litre to over ₦620/litre, was projected to yield annual savings of ₦6.7 trillion. The administration pledged that these funds would be redirected into critical investments in infrastructure, education, and healthcare.

Yet, by the first quarter of 2024, both the Ministry of Finance and the Budget Office failed to present any traceable breakdown of how these savings were deployed. An investigation by BudgIT in March 2024 revealed that more than 60% of the anticipated savings had been reabsorbed by NNPCL, under vague programs labeled “pipeline security” and “price stabilization”—initiatives with no public oversight or clear operational framework.

Civil society organizations including SERAP and CISLAC filed Freedom of Information (FOI) requests for official documentation on subsidy fund allocations. All were either ignored or rejected under the pretext of “national security.” In response, SERAP filed suit against both NNPCL and the Ministry of Finance in April 2024, demanding disclosure.

State Capture by Crude

Alarming evidence emerged in November 2024 when whistleblowers at the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) leaked internal memos revealing that over $400 million in license renewal bonuses had either not been paid or had been diverted through unauthorized channels. Efforts to investigate were swiftly suppressed, allegedly by senior officials with close ties to the presidency.

One lawyer involved in an ongoing international arbitration against NNPCL, speaking anonymously, remarked:

“The whole value chain—from licensing to lifting to export—is now rigged to benefit a tight circle of politically connected actors. It’s no longer mismanagement. It’s institutionalized state capture.”

Despite growing calls from civil society and the international community, the Tinubu government has refused to authorize a comprehensive audit of NNPCL’s post-subsidy expenditures. The absence of such a review not only defies the PIA’s spirit but reinforces fears that Nigeria’s most vital revenue source has been transformed into a private fiefdom—shielded by legal ambiguity and presidential patronage.

 

Part Four: Defense and Disgrace

A Budget Swollen by Corruption

In 2023, the Nigerian government allocated a colossal ₦2.98 trillion to the defense sector—nearly 13% of the national budget and one of the largest single-line appropriations in recent history. On paper, this level of investment signaled a decisive response to Nigeria’s deepening security crisis. In practice, it has become a financial sinkhole—a vast pool of opaque expenditures where transparency is abandoned and accountability is structurally avoided.

Despite this massive outlay, insecurity has not abated. Armed groups—ranging from bandits in Zamfara to insurgents in the North East and kidnappers in the South East—continue to operate with impunity. The very institutions entrusted with national defense are plagued by procurement fraud, ghost contracts, and obscure budget line items.

A 2024 leaked audit from the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) revealed that more than ₦578 billion allocated for arms procurement in 2023 was unsupported by verifiable deliveries or documentation. The audit exposed “phantom purchases” of military-grade drones, bulletproof vests, armored tanks, and communications systems—none of which were deployed in the field or traced to end-users.

Boots on the Ground, Bullets Missing

The frontline consequences of this systemic failure are borne by Nigerian soldiers. Interviews conducted with military personnel stationed in Borno, Niger, and Kaduna states painted a grim picture: chronic supply shortages, outdated weaponry, irregular allowances, and an overall erosion of morale.

One corporal reported going six months without receiving housing allowances. Another recounted a fatal ambush in which three soldiers died due to expired ammunition and the absence of backup support.

Field commanders confirmed that troops are often issued rusting AK-47 rifles from the 1980s, recycled body armor, and inadequate daily rations. In December 2024, a video surfaced of soldiers in Zamfara protesting unpaid duty allowances. The Ministry of Defence issued a cursory statement, but no structural reforms followed.

The Nigerian Military-Industrial Complex

At the heart of the defense sector’s dysfunction lies a tightly knit network of political financiers, military elites, and opaque contractors. A January 2024 investigation by Sahara Reporters uncovered that at least five companies, collectively awarded over ₦500 billion in defense contracts, had direct ties to donors of Tinubu’s 2023 presidential campaign.

One firm, Prowess Integrated Solutions Ltd, received a ₦67 billion contract for surveillance drone procurement—despite being incorporated only six months earlier and lacking any history of defense-related work.

Procurement records also revealed that nearly ₦300 billion in defense funding was allocated under vague labels like “logistics,” “contingency reinforcement,” and “classified operations.” Efforts by the National Assembly Committee on Defense to scrutinize these expenditures were blocked, with officials invoking “national security” as justification for non-disclosure.

The Price of Political Patronage

Security under President Tinubu has been politicized. Appointments to high-ranking military positions appear increasingly driven by political loyalty and ethnic calculations rather than merit or strategic competence.

In July 2024, the Chief of Army Staff was replaced by an officer widely viewed as loyal to APC power brokers. The decision followed the military’s hesitation to forcibly disperse public protests in Lagos against soaring fuel prices.

Meanwhile, military intelligence has reportedly been deployed against journalists, civil society organizations, and opposition leaders, all under the guise of “anti-terrorism operations.” This creeping politicization has further eroded professionalism, operational efficiency, and public trust in the military establishment.

Budget vs. Battlefield: A Stark Imbalance

A March 2025 brief by SBM Intelligence offered a revealing breakdown of Nigeria’s 2023 defense expenditure:

Category	Allocation (₦)
Personnel & Overheads	₦1.9 trillion
Capital Expenditure	₦490 billion
Emergency & Classified Programs	₦150 billion

Only 16.4% of the defense budget was dedicated to capital expenditures—funds intended for new equipment, military infrastructure, and training facilities. Worse still, the entire ₦150 billion allocated for emergency and classified operations remains unaudited, unaccounted for, and shielded from public or legislative review.

Human Costs and Civilian Fallout

The consequence of this financial and structural decay is catastrophic. According to a March 2024 report by Amnesty International, more than 3,700 civilians were killed in conflict-related violence during the first nine months of Tinubu’s presidency. Nigeria’s internally displaced persons (IDP) population surged past 3 million, with women and children accounting for over 68% of all residents in camps across Borno, Adamawa, and Zamfara states.

Despite this humanitarian emergency, the Ministry of Defence failed to disburse over ₦14 billion earmarked for civil-military coordination, leaving IDP camps unsecured and vulnerable to repeated raids by armed groups.

 

A Global Embarrassment

Nigeria’s security crisis now resonates beyond its borders. The Global Terrorism Index 2024 ranked the country 8th among the most terrorized nations globally. The Fragile States Index classified Nigeria as “High Alert,” reflecting institutional decay and chronic governance failures.

Key defense partners—including the United Kingdom and Germany—have raised concerns over opaque contracting processes. In late 2024, the U.S. State Department placed a hold on a $48 million arms deal, pending a comprehensive transparency assessment of Nigeria’s defense procurement system.

Reclaiming the Barracks: A Reform Agenda

To rescue Nigeria’s defense apparatus from collapse and restore its operational credibility, urgent reforms are non-negotiable:

• Mandate transparent defense procurement processes with independent oversight
• Enact whistleblower protections specifically for military personnel
• Depoliticize military appointments and restore merit-based promotions
• Establish audit mechanisms for “classified” expenditures under civilian supervision

Until the military is disentangled from political patronage and financial corruption, it will remain structurally incapable of securing the nation. In its current form, Nigeria’s defense establishment is not a bulwark of national sovereignty—it is a bloated, compromised institution hemorrhaging both money and legitimacy.

The risk is not just that Nigeria continues to lose its wars. The greater threat is that it may lose the military itself—to incompetence, to corruption, and ultimately, to collapse.

Part Five: The War on Whistleblowers

The Systematic Silencing of Truth

Whistleblowers are indispensable to any democratic society. They provide the critical lifeline between government malpractice and public accountability, often at great personal risk. But under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the space for whistleblowing in Nigeria has contracted sharply. What was once a tentative culture of protected civic disclosure has descended into an era of intimidation, censorship, and targeted retribution.

Organizations such as Amnesty International now describe the Tinubu administration’s stance on whistleblowing as “systemic suppression.” Where prior administrations gestured toward legal protections, this one has cultivated an environment in which exposing truth has become tantamount to betrayal.

A Law in Ruins

The Whistleblower Protection Act, passed under the Buhari administration in 2017, was a modest but groundbreaking initiative. It promised financial incentives and legal protections to citizens who reported corruption. Yet by 2024, the law had effectively collapsed in practice.

Under Tinubu, no whistleblower has received the full compensation legally due to them. Instead, those who step forward face harassment, surveillance, job termination, or forced exile. In a growing number of cases, the consequences have been fatal.

Case Files of Reprisal

1. The CBN Auditor (January 2025)
   A mid-level auditor at the Central Bank of Nigeria exposed unauthorized payments totaling ₦17 billion to shell companies. Weeks later, he was found dead in his Abuja apartment. Authorities called it a “domestic incident.” However, an independent autopsy commissioned by his family found signs of blunt force trauma. His widow revealed he had received anonymous threats before his death.
2. The Oil Sector Informant (November 2024)
   A senior staff member at the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) leaked memos detailing $400 million in unremitted oil license payments. He was promptly suspended and now faces trial under the Cybercrimes Act for the “unauthorized dissemination of government property.”
3. The Budget Officer in Exile (2024)
   After leaking documents exposing ₦62 billion in inflated contracts linked to companies with ties to APC financiers, a former Budget Office staffer fled to Ghana. She reported being trailed by unknown individuals and had her phone communications tapped. The EFCC later issued an arrest warrant, accusing her of “economic sabotage.”

Institutional Retreat and Paralysis

Between 2023 and 2025, at least seven whistleblowers have either disappeared, died under suspicious circumstances, or been forced into hiding. None of these cases have resulted in credible prosecutions or internal investigations. The Ministry of Justice has declined to intervene, while police authorities regularly attribute such incidents to vague “personal disputes.”

The resulting chilling effect has been dramatic. According to data from the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC), official whistleblower reports dropped by 68% in 2024, a striking indication of institutional distrust and fear.

Year	Official Whistleblower Reports
2021	397
2022	421
2023	312
2024	98

 

Weaponizing the Law

Rather than reinforce protection frameworks, the Tinubu administration has actively used legal tools to target whistleblowers and those who amplify their disclosures. The 2024 amendment to the Cybercrime Act now criminalizes the “unauthorized publication of government documents,” a clause that legal experts and activists agree is tailor-made to suppress whistleblowers.

In March 2025, civil society groups including SERAP, BudgIT, and EiE Nigeria issued a joint statement warning:

“This administration has weaponized digital legislation to entrench impunity. What we’re witnessing is not digital security—it’s digital censorship.”

The Digital Security and Information Integrity Bill, now before the National Assembly, proposes even broader powers: banning anonymous disclosures, penalizing platforms hosting “subversive content,” and allowing state surveillance of encrypted messaging platforms. Critics fear this would institutionalize the criminalization of truth-telling.

A Civil Service Under Siege

Inside government ministries and agencies, whistleblower desks have been quietly dismantled. Staff now undergo background screenings, email surveillance, and are compelled to sign confidentiality agreements that contradict whistleblower protection laws.

A former procurement officer in the Ministry of Education described an internal crackdown:

“They brought in DSS agents to lecture us about ‘information discipline.’ The next day, the whistleblower unit was shut down. Since then, no one dares speak up.”

Journalism in the Crosshairs

The targeting has not been limited to internal government actors. Journalists who publish whistleblower findings are now facing state retaliation. According to the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ), at least 17 journalists were detained or harassed in 2024 alone. Media houses including Premium Times, Peoples Gazette, and Sahara Reporters have documented surveillance, legal threats, and covert intimidation.

In September 2024, a freelance reporter who published a whistleblower account involving the Ministry of Works was arrested and held without charge for 19 days. His devices were seized, and the article in question was removed following a court gag order.

Criminalizing Courage

Despite these mounting risks, a few institutions continue to push back. The African Centre for Media & Information Literacy (AFRICMIL) has created a legal defense fund for whistleblowers. Tracka, a civic tech platform by BudgIT, maintains an anonymous submission line for contract fraud.

But their resilience is met with growing concern. An internal BudgIT memo from late 2024 warned:

“We must prepare for a future where all internal disclosures are criminalized, and digital surveillance is the norm.”

Reform or Retaliation?

Calls for meaningful reform have been ignored. A 2024 bill introduced by Senator Chimaroke Ogbonnia, which sought to establish an independent Whistleblower Protection Commission, was defeated in committee.

The presidency has dismissed mounting allegations of whistleblower persecution as “media exaggeration” and “political propaganda.” Meanwhile, the State Security Services (SSS) and EFCC have expanded their roles in monitoring civil servants under the guise of anti-corruption and counter-terrorism.

The cumulative message is unmistakable: truth-telling is now treason.

 

A Nation at Risk of Silence

Whistleblowers are not enemies of the state. They are the last line of defense against systemic collapse. As the Tinubu administration deepens its war on disclosure, Nigeria risks extinguishing one of the few remaining pathways to accountability.

Without urgent reform—stronger legal protections, institutional independence, and a cultural shift toward transparency—whistleblowing in Nigeria will become synonymous with martyrdom. And when the truth is punished, tyranny thrives.

The survival of Nigerian democracy may well depend on whether its truth-tellers can speak without fear.

 

Part Six: No Transparency, No Reform

The Retreat from Open Governance

When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office, he pledged a new era of transparency, accountability, and people-centered governance. He vowed that Nigeria would shed the legacy of opacity that had long undermined trust in public institutions. Two years into his presidency, however, what has emerged is not reform—but regression. Virtually every pillar of open governance constructed since the early 2000s has been weakened, dismantled, or rendered nonfunctional.

From fiscal disclosure to public procurement tracking, debt transparency, and asset declaration, the Tinubu administration has actively retreated from tools that once offered Nigerians a window into the workings of government.

The Collapse of the Open Treasury Portal

A central casualty in this rollback is the Open Treasury Portal, introduced under President Buhari to enable real-time access to federal expenditure above ₦5 million. Designed to foster citizen engagement and accountability, it became a model for digital transparency across Africa.

That promise has now vanished. By July 2023, the portal stopped receiving updates. By Q4 2023, it went completely offline.

Requests by civic organizations like BudgIT, SERAP, and Tracka for access to federal spending records were ignored. In January 2024, a Freedom of Information (FOI) request filed by SERAP—seeking details on ₦3.1 trillion in capital releases—was formally denied by the Ministry of Finance, citing vague “cybersecurity concerns.”

The result: a blackout in public oversight of government spending.

Hidden Asset Declarations

Asset declarations by public officials, mandated under Section 140 of the Nigerian Constitution and the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB) Act, have also disappeared from public view. Neither President Tinubu nor the majority of his cabinet has made their declarations public. FOI requests have been stonewalled, with the CCB claiming that declarations are “confidential.”

The contrast with late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, who voluntarily declared his assets upon assuming office in 2007, is obvious. Today, the failure to disclose has deepened public suspicion. Transparency International Nigeria described this as:

“A clear signal that public office has become a cloak behind which private wealth accumulation is hidden.”

 

Opaque Debt Practices

Public borrowing under Tinubu has reached unprecedented levels. In 2024 alone, Nigeria secured over $12 billion in new credit lines from China, Qatar, and private bond markets. Yet, the Debt Management Office (DMO) has increasingly refused to release full loan agreements, project justifications, or repayment schedules.

Many of these debt instruments are now classified as “national security-sensitive,” a designation that renders scrutiny nearly impossible—even for the National Assembly.

According to BudgIT’s 2024 Public Finance Integrity Index, Nigeria’s debt transparency score dropped from 62% in 2021 to 38% in 2024.

Freedom of Information, Denied

The Freedom of Information Act, enacted in 2011, was intended to empower citizens and watchdogs to demand accountability. Under Tinubu, the law has become a dead letter.

In 2024 alone, a review by the FOI Coalition Nigeria found that out of 119 FOI requests submitted to federal agencies:

Response Type	Number of Requests
Received a Response	27
Fulfilled in Full	8
Completely Ignored	64

Most denials cited “national security” or “executive privilege,” creating a culture of secrecy even in mundane sectors like education, health, and infrastructure.

Budgeting in the Dark

Both the 2024 and 2025 Appropriation Acts feature over ₦4.2 trillion in ambiguous categories such as “statutory transfers” and “service-wide votes.” These budget lines are designed to bypass detailed oversight.

One line item, ₦39 billion for ‘presidential interventions’, carries no breakdown, ministry attribution, or performance benchmark. According to a Tracka analysis, the 2024 budget contains:

• 8,500+ duplicated projects
• ₦148 billion allocated to categories labeled “consultancy,” “logistics,” or “miscellaneous”

This pattern invites fraud and makes meaningful monitoring impossible.

Persecution of Transparency Advocates

Demanding fiscal openness has become a dangerous act. In November 2024, the Executive Director of a Lagos-based transparency NGO was detained for “publishing state secrets” after tweeting procurement documents from the Ministry of Works. The EFCC subsequently froze his organization’s bank accounts.

In another incident, two investigative journalists probing the reallocation of fuel subsidy savings were summoned by the DSS and accused of “espionage.”

These reprisals reflect an administration increasingly hostile to transparency—not just in practice, but in principle.

A Legacy of Secrecy

Observers argue that Tinubu’s aversion to transparency is consistent with his historical approach to governance. During his tenure as Lagos State Governor (1999–2007), Tinubu resisted all efforts to audit the state’s finances or disclose procurement records. His successor, Babatunde Fashola, only partially opened the books under immense public pressure.

Now at the federal level, the pattern has repeated. Under Tinubu, Nigeria has:

• Dropped 14 places in the Global Open Budget Index
• Ranked near the bottom of the Africa Integrity Index (2024)

The Cost of Secrecy

The dismantling of transparency infrastructure is not just a governance concern—it has profound real-world consequences:

• Misallocation of public resources
• Ballooning debt without scrutiny
• Service delivery failures in health, education, and infrastructure
• Rising public distrust and apathy

In the absence of visibility, there can be no accountability. And without accountability, Nigeria’s democratic institutions risk becoming hollow facades—democratic in name only.

A Nation in the Shadows

Transparency is not a luxury or public relations gesture—it is the foundation of responsible governance. It empowers citizens, deters abuse, and ensures that public funds serve public needs.

Under President Tinubu, that foundation is being eroded with intent. From sealed budgets to hidden debts, from blocked FOI requests to persecuted advocates, the message is clear: information is power, and this administration intends to keep both for itself.

If unchecked, this slide into fiscal opacity and institutional darkness will not just undermine democratic norms—it will bury them.

 

Part Seven: Corruption by Budget – How Public Finance Became Loot

Budgeting as an Instrument of Predation

In a functioning democracy, the national budget is meant to be a moral contract—an articulation of a government’s social priorities, development objectives, and economic strategy. Under President Bola Tinubu, however, Nigeria’s federal budget has been transformed into a mechanism of political patronage, institutionalized graft, and elite accumulation.

Rather than serving as a blueprint for inclusive development, the 2024 and 2025 appropriation bills reveal a budget process weaponized to reward loyalty, conceal theft, and impoverish the public realm. In place of transparency, there is obfuscation; in place of reform, a sprawling architecture of fraud.

Phantom Projects and Budgetary Echo Chambers

According to Tracka’s 2024 budget transparency analysis, over 8,500 duplicate projects were embedded across multiple ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs). These duplications are neither administrative oversights nor clerical redundancies—they are deliberate tools for fiscal manipulation and illicit enrichment.

Examples of Repetition for Fraudulent Gain:

Project	Agencies Involved	Total Allocation (₦)
Rural feeder road rehabilitation (Bayelsa)	Ministry of Works, Niger Delta, Humanitarian Affairs	14.6 billion
Borehole construction (various locations)	17 entries under different MDAs	816 million (₦48m x 17)

Contractors listed for these projects often had no verified business address, lacked tax identification numbers, or were tied to political insiders.

Service-Wide Votes: Executive Slush Funds

Nowhere is financial opacity more entrenched than in the Service-Wide Vote (SWV)—a vast discretionary pool under the control of the presidency. In 2024, the SWV ballooned to ₦1.2 trillion, a steep increase from ₦789 billion in 2022.

Investigations by BudgIT and OrderPaper revealed that most SWV allocations were channeled to:

• Unspecified security expenditures
• State House renovations
• Maintenance of the presidential fleet
• Discretionary payments to traditional rulers and political appointees

There is no legal obligation for the presidency to disclose SWV disbursements. It remains an untraceable vault of power—shielded from scrutiny and immune to legislative oversight.

Palliative Promises, Political Payoffs

In response to widespread public anger following the 2023 fuel subsidy removal, the Tinubu government announced a ₦500 billion palliative fund, ostensibly to provide ₦8,000 per month to 12 million vulnerable households.

Yet by May 2024, only 2.3 million recipients had been verified. ₦182 billion remained unaccounted for, and procurement for fund distribution had been outsourced to a private fintech firm owned by a political associate.

A NEITI report further disclosed that ₦63 billion was funneled through unregistered cooperatives—many of them hastily formed, with no record of community service delivery.

Constituency Projects: The Legislators’ Jackpot

Each year, National Assembly members are allocated funds for “constituency projects” meant to address local development needs. Yet in 2024, the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC) reviewed 437 projects across 14 states and discovered that more than 50% were:

• Fraudulently inflated
• Never implemented
• Executed by shell companies owned by lawmakers or relatives

Case Study:

A ₦1.5 billion skill acquisition center in Kogi State was awarded to a company whose registered office address matched the personal residence of the sponsoring senator’s wife.

Luxury Spending Amid National Suffering

Despite persistent economic strain, elite spending has continued unchecked. The State House budget for 2024 included:

Line Item	Amount (₦)
New presidential yachts	1.9 billion
Vehicle upgrades	2.3 billion
“VIP hospitality”	3.1 billion

While these luxuries were indulged, allocations to health and education sectors remained below international benchmarks. Nigeria’s health budget fell short of the African Union’s 15% target, and thousands of primary healthcare centers across the country remained unfunded or abandoned.

“Youth Empowerment” as Political Spoils

The much-touted ₦75 billion ‘Renewed Hope Youth Bank’—a flagship program of the Ministry of Youth and Sports Development—has turned out to be another instrument of partisan patronage.

As of March 2025, only ₦4.2 billion had been disbursed. Investigations found that most recipients were APC youth leaders or their associates. No business verification, project milestones, or repayment frameworks were in place.

A whistleblower within the ministry stated:

“If you weren’t a registered member of an APC youth structure, you didn’t stand a chance.”

Digital Infrastructure, Analog Outcomes

In 2024, the Ministry of Communications budgeted ₦18 billion for a new national data center under its “Digital Governance Enhancement” initiative. But as of Q1 2025, no land had been cleared, no construction had begun, and contracts were awarded to three firms with overlapping ownership.

This reflects a broader pattern: massive allocations to technology projects that exist only on paper—creating an illusion of progress while laundering public funds through ghost corporations.

The Price of Plunder: Development Deferred

Every inflated contract, duplicate project, or unaccounted SWV allocation comes at the expense of real development. The consequences are immediate and tragic:

• Schools without blackboards or roofing
• Health centers without electricity or medication
• Roads that collapse in a single rainy season
• Internally displaced persons (IDPs) left without food, water, or shelter

According to the World Bank’s 2025 Nigeria Economic Update:

Metric	Value
Capital budget utilization (2024)	42%
Recurrent expenditure (2024)	78%

Instead of investing in the future, the government is consuming it—one corrupt budget cycle at a time.

A Fiscal Culture of Capture

Under the Tinubu administration, the budget process has devolved into a kleptocratic ritual. Rather than a moral document grounded in service and accountability, the federal budget is now a conveyor belt of corruption—transporting public wealth from the bottom to the top, from the people to the powerful.

Without institutional safeguards such as:

• Real-time project tracking
• Citizen-participatory budgeting
• Full publication of SWV expenditures
• Independent audits of constituency projects

…the national budget will remain a politically engineered heist.

Until Nigeria reclaims its budget from the grip of patronage networks, there will be no sustainable development, no democratic renewal, and no social justice—only a deepening cycle of fiscal betrayal, year after year.

Read also: Uganda’s Gold Crisis: Prof. MarkAnthony Nze Exposes Truth

Part Eight: The Privatization of National Wealth

State Capture in Broad Daylight

National wealth—oil reserves, rail networks, port terminals, telecom frequencies—is supposed to be held in trust for the Nigerian people. But under the Tinubu administration, these assets are being quietly transferred into private hands, often without competitive bidding, public oversight, or measurable developmental return. What’s unfolding is not privatization as economic reform—it is privatization as political reward.

This trend, widely viewed as a fast-moving form of state capture, is redirecting the nation’s core economic instruments into a closed circuit of political allies, donors, and shadow companies linked to the ruling elite.

NNPCL and the Vanishing Billions

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), birthed from the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), was envisioned as a commercial and transparent national oil champion. But transparency has been sacrificed for secrecy.

Since its incorporation in 2022, NNPCL has ceased publishing remittance disclosures to the Federation Account. A 2023 NEITI audit revealed:

Category	Amount	Remarks
Unreconciled oil lifting revenues	$2.7 billion	Missing from official records
Political contract awards	$400 million	Awarded without tenders to APC-linked firms

Further investigation by the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID) uncovered that several marginal oil field licenses were discreetly issued within 72 hours of the 2023 general elections—most granted to shell companies whose directors have direct ties to the Ministry of Petroleum Resources.

Ports: Privatization by Proxy

The Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) under Tinubu has accelerated the concessioning of key infrastructure—but with alarming opacity. In December 2024, the Lekki Deep Sea Port and Apapa Bulk Terminal were awarded to companies with no maritime track record but clear political affiliations.

Project	Deal Value	Transparency Status
Lekki Deep Sea Port Concession	₦614 billion	No bid documents published
Apapa Bulk Terminal	Undisclosed	Political ties reported

Demands from the Maritime Workers Union and civil society for disclosure have been ignored. The Bureau of Public Enterprises has refused to release bidding criteria, raising suspicions of insider dealing.

Railway Expansion: National Debt, Political Dividends

In June 2024, the Tinubu government signed a $4.2 billion agreement with the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) for expansion of the Lagos-Calabar railway.

Key concerns raised by civil society:

• The agreement lacked National Assembly approval
• Repayment terms remain classified
• CCECC had previously been blacklisted in Kenya for corruption

Subcontractors for the project, investigative reporters revealed, were handpicked based on proximity to APC powerbrokers, not engineering competence. The Nigerian Railway Corporation has failed to disclose compliance with local content provisions or return-on-investment projections.

Telecom Licensing and Elite Cronyism

The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) issued new broadband and 5G spectrum licenses in 2024. While giants like MTN and Airtel participated in open bids, a mysterious company—SkyEdge Networks—secured a major 5G license without public tender.

Company	License Value	Awarded For	Amount Paid
SkyEdge Networks	₦118 billion	5G Spectrum	₦18 billion

SkyEdge’s board includes relatives of senior presidential aides, and insiders at NCC claim the deal was expedited under political pressure for the firm’s IPO listing in Dubai.

Sovereign Wealth, Secret Deals

The Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), custodian of the nation’s excess crude savings and Future Generations Fund, now faces serious credibility challenges.

Despite claims of transparency, its 2023 financial statements failed to disclose:

• Fees paid to private equity firms
• Real-time portfolio asset locations
• Investments authorized by the National Economic Council

In January 2025, a whistleblower alleged that $900 million in investment proceeds had been diverted into “special intervention accounts” managed by the Presidency—without legislative authorization or public audit.

Downstream Deregulation: A Market Captured

After fuel subsidy removal in May 2023, deregulation of the downstream oil sector was expected to open the market. Instead, a small cartel of four importers—two linked to ruling party donors—now controls 68% of petrol imports.

The Downstream Regulatory Authority (DRA) has failed to license a single indigenous refinery, while granting massive import waivers under executive directives.

Fuel prices have stayed volatile, even as global crude prices dropped—raising suspicion of price-fixing and manipulation for private gain.

Public Services, Privately Monetized

Privatization has crept into social services with little debate and even less oversight.

• In September 2024, the Ministry of Education approved conversion of 48 federal unity schools into Public-Private Partnerships (PPP)—granting corporate investors control over curriculum and admissions.
• In public hospitals across Abuja, Lagos, and Kano, diagnostics and pharmacy services are now outsourced to third-party providers charging 300%–500% more than public rates.

A leaked agreement between the Ministry of Health and a private HMO revealed a 72%-28% revenue split—with the bulk going to the contractor, not the public hospitals.

A Nation for Sale: The Political Economy of Privatization

Nigeria’s privatization agenda under Tinubu is unfolding behind closed doors. From oilfields to telecom frequencies, railways to schools, strategic assets are being awarded to insiders—cloaked in executive orders, manipulated bidding, and classified documents.

What should be transparent economic reform has become a playground of resource capture:

Sector	Asset/Resource	Alleged Abuse
Oil & Gas	Marginal fields, lifting contracts	Shell companies, no tenders
Ports	Lekki & Apapa terminals	Politically aligned bidders
Telecom	5G licenses	Underpriced to insiders
Railways	Lagos-Calabar rail	No legislative approval
Sovereign Wealth	$900M profits	Diverted to opaque “interventions”
Healthcare	Public hospitals	HMO revenue hijack
Education	Unity schools	PPP deals with no transparency

Privatization Without the Public

Privatization, when carried out with integrity, can improve efficiency, stimulate competition, and expand access. But under the Tinubu administration, it has become a euphemism for asset stripping—an elite-driven plunder masquerading as policy.

This is not deregulation. It is dispossession. It’s not liberalization. It is the institutionalization of a parallel economy—controlled not by merit or market dynamics, but by political connections and opaque contracts.

Until open bidding, public oversight, and full disclosures become non-negotiable in all asset transfers, Nigeria’s public wealth will remain hostage to private greed.

The tragedy is that the profits are privatized—but the poverty is communal.

 

Part Nine: Institutionalized Inequality: How Corruption Fuels Widespread Poverty in Nigeria

The Human Toll of Elite Exploitation

Corruption in Nigeria inflicts tangible, devastating harm on the nation’s most vulnerable citizens. Under President Tinubu, the disparity between an insulated elite class and a suffering population has grown into a full-blown crisis. When national resources are embezzled or redirected into private pockets, the result is not merely administrative failure—it is the systematic erasure of hope for millions. What emerges is a bifurcated society, where a select few thrive amidst widespread destitution.

Poverty in an Oil-Rich Nation

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that 133 million Nigerians—roughly 63% of the population—live in multidimensional poverty, lacking essential services such as education, healthcare, potable water, and financial access. Despite record-high public expenditures, these poverty indicators have deteriorated significantly during Tinubu’s tenure.

While official figures tout GDP growth, inflation surpassed 33% by mid-2025, with food inflation exceeding 45%. This made staple goods such as rice and garri unaffordable to average citizens. At the same time, luxury car imports rose by 19%—highlighting the grotesque imbalance of wealth in a country misgoverned by self-interest.

The Collapse of Public Infrastructure

In the education sector, ₦92 billion allocated for school rehabilitation in 2024 was largely misappropriated by shell companies. The Universal Basic Education Commission found that 43% of Nigerian primary schools lacked usable toilets, and 60% operated without electricity.

Healthcare is in no better condition. A 2025 study backed by the WHO placed Nigeria’s infant mortality rate at 78 per 1,000 live births—one of the world’s highest. Rural clinics frequently lack vaccines, antibiotics, or trained personnel. Meanwhile, the Tinubu government approved a ₦4.8 billion upgrade of the Aso Rock Clinic, accessible only to top officials.

Youth Unemployment and Institutional Betrayal

Youth unemployment reached 58% by Q1 2025, per NBS figures. University graduates, bereft of opportunities, find employment schemes monopolized by political loyalists. A Transparency International probe revealed that ₦28 billion earmarked for job creation was diverted to bogus cooperatives linked to APC figures. Recipients were selected based on loyalty, not competence.

Disproportionate Impact on Women and Children

Women bear the brunt of Nigeria’s elite-induced poverty. UN Women data shows that female-led households in Northern Nigeria suffer from poverty rates 31% above the national average. Initiatives meant to alleviate this burden, such as the “Renewed Hope Women Fund,” were sabotaged—only ₦1.2 billion of the ₦14 billion allocated actually reached verified beneficiaries. In many instances, access required political loyalty or party membership.

Children are similarly imperiled. A 2024 joint UNICEF-NBS survey recorded 10.2 million Nigerian children out of school, up from 8.9 million in 2022. This regression is directly tied to looted education budgets, unpaid teacher salaries, and collapsing infrastructure.

Insecurity and the Abandonment of the Poor

Where security fails, the poor suffer first. Rural communities in Kaduna, Zamfara, and Plateau endure waves of violent attacks with minimal government response. Markets are razed, villages evacuated, and women kidnapped—all because stolen defense funds have hollowed out Nigeria’s protective capacity.

According to SBM Intelligence, over 8,000 Nigerians were displaced by violence in the first half of 2025 alone—nearly all of them in underserved areas already burdened by poverty.

The Regressive Taxation of the Poor

With oil revenues dwindling and foreign investment scarce, the government has shifted its fiscal weight onto everyday Nigerians. In 2024, the FIRS introduced new consumption and digital taxes that disproportionately hit small business owners, artisans, and low-income earners. These new taxes were not matched by improvements in social services.

At the same time, over 130 politically connected individuals—including current senators and ministers—were exposed for using offshore trusts to shield their assets from tax liability.

A System Designed to Exclude

The persistence of poverty in Nigeria is not coincidental—it is structural. Government appointments, contracts, and funds are allocated based on patronage rather than need or merit. The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) reported that 76% of Tinubu’s federal appointments came from only five states, while 87% of major contracts were awarded to companies tied to less than 2% of the population.

This is not a case of poor governance. It is deliberate exclusion, enshrined in institutional design.

When Corruption Is Policy

The Tinubu administration’s corruption is not simply ethical failure; it is a calculated mechanism of inequality. Each corrupt contract and politicized appointment deepens the gulf between privilege and poverty.

To address this, Nigeria must pursue structural reform. This includes:

• Strict protection of social sector budgets
• Empowerment of the Auditor-General’s office
• Real-time procurement and project tracking
• Community-level audit structures

Without these actions, inequality will not merely persist—it will expand. And Nigeria, despite its abundant wealth, will remain a country where prosperity is hoarded by the few and poverty is manufactured for the many.

 

Part Ten: The International Cost – Nigeria’s Reputational Erosion and Investor Fallout

Reputation in Decline

Nigeria’s global image has taken a serious hit under President Tinubu. Once viewed as a regional powerhouse and a democratic anchor in West Africa, the country is now perceived as a case study in unchecked corruption, weakened institutions, and deepening investor mistrust.

In 2024, Nigeria dropped five spots on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, ranking 159th out of 180 countries. The U.S. State Department also flagged “deeply entrenched corruption” as a core challenge in its Human Rights Report, alongside concerns over flawed elections and abuses in the security sector.

Capital Flight and Investor Apathy

Foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by nearly 41% in 2024, according to the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission (NIPC). Common investor complaints include lack of policy clarity, institutional corruption, weak rule of law, and contract enforcement failures.

Major players have exited Nigeria’s economy in key sectors. TotalEnergies pulled out of a $1.3 billion offshore oil deal in April 2025 due to regulatory opacity. By June, Procter & Gamble had scaled down its Nigerian operations, citing policy inconsistency.

The Lagos International Arbitration Centre also reported a 35% surge in contract disputes involving Nigerian state agencies between 2023 and 2025, with causes ranging from contract breaches to abrupt policy shifts and payment failures.

Sovereign Ratings and Cost of Borrowing

In September 2024, Moody’s downgraded Nigeria’s credit score to Caa1, warning of growing inefficiencies in public spending and ballooning debt. By 2025, more than 74% of national revenue was channeled into debt servicing alone.

This fiscal instability forced the postponement of a Eurobond auction in June 2025 when yields spiked past 17%, revealing how fragile investor confidence has become under Tinubu’s leadership.

Multilateral Strains

Nigeria’s standing in global and regional organizations has also suffered. At 2024 AU and ECOWAS summits, the country came under discreet criticism for promoting anti-corruption rhetoric while shielding domestic impunity.

The World Bank withheld a $1.2 billion loan in 2025 over transparency concerns. The IMF, too, delayed a key credit facility tranche pending financial reforms. The EU has placed Nigeria under aid scrutiny after €210 million in grants were allegedly misused at the sub-national level.

Diaspora Disillusionment

Long a lifeline for Nigeria’s economy, diaspora remittances have shrunk—from $23 billion in 2022 to $17.9 billion in 2024. Many in the diaspora now question the merit of continued engagement.

Nigerians abroad have published public condemnations of the Tinubu government’s crackdown on civil liberties. Visa rejection rates for Nigerian applicants rose due to documentation fraud and weak institutional verification. Four international universities suspended Nigerian-linked scholarships due to compliance concerns.

Press and Watchdog Criticism

Global media and human rights organizations have turned a critical eye toward Nigeria. The Economist, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, and Foreign Policy have all run hard-hitting reports detailing Nigeria’s democratic erosion.

In March 2025, Human Rights Watch warned of “a democratic unraveling” in Nigeria. Amnesty International followed suit, citing harassment of journalists, misuse of anti-graft bodies, and unlawful detentions.

Losing Ground as a Business Destination

By Q2 2025, Nigeria was ranked among the world’s 10 least attractive FDI destinations. Risk assessments from KPMG and PwC flagged the country as a “high-risk jurisdiction” for investments requiring government interaction.

McKinsey & Co. and Harvard’s Kennedy School jointly cautioned that, without reform, Nigeria could become an economic outcast despite its vast market potential and youthful population.

Reputation as a National Asset

In today’s world, a country’s credibility is currency. For investors, partners, and diaspora networks, trust and institutional stability matter just as much as profits.

The Tinubu administration’s unwillingness to enforce transparent, ethical governance has cost Nigeria more than just money—it threatens the country’s diplomatic standing, regional influence, and appeal to its own citizens abroad.

Without bold reforms, Nigeria risks permanent reputational damage that could take generations to repair.

 

Part Eleven: Resistance and Hope – Civil Society vs. the State Machine

Civil Society: The Final Line of Defense Against Decline

As Nigeria’s democratic institutions buckle under the strain of entrenched corruption and increasing government repression, civil society stands as the nation’s most steadfast champion of truth and accountability. Despite intensifying digital surveillance, dwindling financial support, and growing intimidation, Nigeria’s civil actors—journalists, lawyers, students, and grassroots organizers—remain the crucial barrier between democratic backsliding and authoritarian dominance.

Media Watchdogs on the Frontline

Independent media outlets like Premium Times, Peoples Gazette, Sahara Reporters, TheCable, and HumAngle have played leading roles in uncovering deeply rooted corruption. In 2024 alone, their collaborative efforts exposed over ₦320 billion in misappropriated funds across key sectors, including defense, oil, and infrastructure. Landmark investigations such as #BudgetOfFraud and #SubsidySecrets ignited public outrage and spurred some hesitant legislative actions.

These journalistic triumphs have come at considerable risk. Between January 2023 and April 2025, the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) documented 21 journalist arrests, four disappearances, and three deaths tied to corruption-related reporting. For instance, HumAngle’s newsroom was raided twice in 2024 after it revealed fraudulent defense payrolls involving nonexistent “ghost soldiers.”

Legal Defenders of Justice

Legal advocacy organizations including SERAP (Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project), CISLAC (Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre), EiE (Enough is Enough), and HURIWA (Human Rights Writers Association) have mounted numerous legal challenges against state secrecy and human rights violations.

One of the most notable victories came in March 2024, when SERAP secured a court order compelling the federal government to disclose its COVID-19 expenditure. However, the ruling was largely ignored, underscoring the limits of judicial authority when enforcement mechanisms are absent. Likewise, CISLAC’s legal action against questionable oil block allocations prompted a temporary halt on new concessions pending an audit—a meaningful step, but one lacking enduring impact.

The judiciary itself is under siege, with judges who rule against government interests facing abrupt transfers or pressured retirements.

 

Civic Freedoms in Peril

Under President Tinubu’s administration, Nigeria’s civic space has contracted significantly. The proposed Digital Security and Information Integrity Bill demands mandatory registration for bloggers and digital platforms, effectively regulating dissenting voices.

Security agencies now monitor private digital communications. In 2024, Amnesty International recorded over 300 incidents of digital rights violations, ranging from forced disappearances to unlawful data collection.

In August 2024, eight young Nigerians were arrested for organizing peaceful #LightUpNigeria protests calling for transparency in the energy sector. Although later released, they remained under surveillance, and their devices were permanently confiscated.

The Pulse of Campus Resistance

Despite escalating crackdowns, student-led activism is thriving. Fueled by the spirit of the #EndSARS movement, new organizations like EnoughNa!, CampusBudgetWatch, and Digital Democracy Now have combined street-level advocacy with cutting-edge technologies like blockchain and social media to drive accountability.

In early 2025, CampusBudgetWatch garnered national attention after exposing ₦1.7 billion in funds allocated to a nonexistent e-learning facility at the University of Abuja. The exposé prompted a Senate investigation.

Student unions at institutions like UNILAG, UI, ABU, and UNN have been outspoken against mismanagement in campus housing and tuition policies. Despite facing suspensions and blacklists, these student activists persist in their quest for justice.

Diaspora Allies and Global Voices

Beyond Nigeria’s borders, diaspora groups like the TakeItBack Movement, NaijaNoDeyCarryLast, and RestoreNaija Coalition have mobilized international attention and resources. These organizations have channeled support into domestic legal battles, investigative journalism, and civic education initiatives while lobbying for foreign governments in the U.S., U.K., and Canada to apply pressure on Nigerian authorities.

In 2024, diaspora communities raised over $2.1 million in support of civil society projects in Nigeria. Their commitment goes beyond emotional solidarity—it is strategic and financial. With billions of dollars in annual remittances, they wield both moral and economic leverage.

Technology as a Weapon for Transparency

A new wave of civic tech platforms is redefining how citizens hold the government to account. Tools like BudgIT, Tracka, FollowTheMoney, and OpenGovNG use data analytics, mobile applications, and open APIs to track government spending and project implementation.

For example, in 2024, Tracka monitored 14,221 abandoned public projects worth ₦912 billion. BudgIT’s 2025 Integrity Index exposed that 17 states had classified more than half of their budgets under vague “miscellaneous” headings—a glaring sign of budgetary abuse.

These insights have become the backbone of many media exposés, street protests, and even parliamentary inquiries.

Moral Authority From the Pulpit and Beyond

Even spiritual and cultural leaders are beginning to speak out against the prevailing corruption. In 2024, the Catholic Bishops Conference publicly denounced “government-enabled moral and material poverty.” Some Northern Muslim clerics have used their Friday sermons to criticize misappropriation in zakat (charity) distribution and call for increased transparency.

While many religious figures remain politically entangled, a growing minority are reclaiming their moral authority, reaching far wider audiences than traditional media through faith-based messaging that stirs conscience and mobilizes action.

Progress Amid Pushback

These resistance movements are not without retaliation. SERAP’s executive director was detained briefly at Lagos airport in February 2025. Tracka’s office in Yobe was forcibly shuttered following its revelations about misused state funds. Meanwhile, a proposed whistleblower protection bill remains stalled in the National Assembly, bogged down by political inertia.

Despite these setbacks, the determination of Nigeria’s civil society remains unshaken. Backed by public confidence, credible data, and a deeply rooted sense of justice, these groups challenge a state that appears increasingly detached from both legality and morality.

A Beacon of Democratic Resilience

In a political environment where official institutions have largely failed the people, civil society emerges as Nigeria’s last credible institution. It remains a living testament to the nation’s unyielding pursuit of justice, transparency, and accountability.

Whether it’s a journalist braving imprisonment for a headline, a student unearthing phantom projects, or a diaspora collective lobbying for foreign sanctions—every act of resistance sends a powerful message to those in power.

While the Nigerian state grapples with a legitimacy crisis, its civil society continues to act as the conscience of the nation. And for now, that may be the country’s most powerful hope for redemption.

Part Twelve: What Must Be Done – A Real Reform Agenda

A Nation at the Crossroads

Nigeria is at a perilous juncture. The Tinubu administration, like many before it, is grappling with accusations of institutionalized corruption, growing inequality, and rampant looting of public coffers. Yet, even in the shadow of despair, there remains a window of opportunity. The greatest lesson from decades of squandered resources and democratic disappointments is clear: genuine reform must be measurable, irreversible, and rooted in substance—not rhetoric. Symbolic gestures can no longer suffice.

To rescue Nigeria’s future, the government must adopt bold, transparent reforms designed to restore public trust, rebuild institutions, and bring those responsible for corruption to justice. Below are twelve foundational pillars of a meaningful reform agenda.

1. Transparency as the Standard, Not the Exception

All government ministries, agencies, and parastatals should be legally required to release real-time data on budget execution. The Open Treasury Portal must be revived and enhanced with AI tools that detect irregularities. Spending reports should be accessible every quarter, verified digitally, and audited by independent third parties.

Public asset declarations by elected officials, agency heads, and senior civil servants must be published annually and vetted by a strengthened Code of Conduct Bureau.

2. Strengthen and Protect Whistleblowers

The existing Whistleblower Policy should be enshrined in law, complete with robust protection measures. Whistleblowers must have access to legal representation, financial rewards for accurate disclosures, and emergency relocation when necessary.

An autonomous Whistleblower Agency—independent of the executive—should be established to receive, investigate, and escalate complaints. No anti-corruption effort can succeed while those who expose wrongdoing face punishment or neglect.

3. Independent Anti-Corruption Institutions

Anti-graft agencies such as the EFCC and ICPC must operate independently of the executive branch. Appointments to leadership positions should be vetted and confirmed by a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, based on nominations from a public commission.

Prosecutorial decisions must be shielded from political interference. These agencies cannot continue to be used as tools for settling political scores.

4. Budget Accountability and Performance-Based Financing

Nigeria must shift from line-item budgeting to a program-based approach, linking fund disbursement to performance metrics. Legislation should limit recurrent expenditures to no more than 45% of the national budget.

Contingency funds and service-wide votes must be itemized, made transparent, and subjected to forensic audits. Funding must lead to project completion, evaluation, and ongoing maintenance—not just allocation.

5. Judicial Overhaul and Case Monitoring

Technology must be deployed to manage judicial cases efficiently, minimizing delays, preventing file tampering, and eliminating dubious dismissals. Corruption-related trials should be conducted in designated courts with defined timelines, public broadcasts, and detailed reporting.

Judges must be selected through merit-based processes, safeguarded from arbitrary transfers, and evaluated publicly. A Judicial Ombudsman should investigate allegations of corruption within the judiciary.

6. Transparent Procurement and Contract Reform

All public contracts above ₦50 million should be listed on a centralized National Procurement Dashboard, complete with bidding documents, selection criteria, recipients, timelines, and payment updates.

A Public Contracts Tribunal should be established to settle disputes and punish fraudulent practices, including collusion and inflated pricing. Companies with histories of corruption must be blacklisted.

7. Empower Local and State-Level Oversight

Corruption extends far beyond the federal level. State and local governments must be incorporated into national accountability structures. Tools like budget dashboards, community audit councils, and social audit committees should be deployed to monitor local projects.

Revenue allocation should reward transparency and project completion. Governors must face the same scrutiny as the president.

8. Reforming the Security Sector

Defense and police budgets, among the least transparent, must be broken down by unit, region, and supplier. Soldiers and officers should be paid promptly, provided with proper resources, and subjected to human rights reviews.

Military procurement must follow competitive bidding processes. Independent bodies must verify arms deliveries and track security-related spending.

9. Leverage the Diaspora for Reform

The Nigerian diaspora is integral to national recovery. Their remittances fuel the economy, their advocacy defends democracy, and their investments spur development. A specialized Office of Diaspora Accountability should be created to receive input, support reform projects, and serve as a watchdog for government integrity.

Diaspora bonds should fund verifiable infrastructure projects, with full financial disclosures and quarterly performance updates.

10. Data and Technology as Tools of Accountability

Public access to data must be foundational to Nigeria’s transparency efforts. APIs should allow civil society, journalists, and researchers to retrieve and analyze government data freely.

Technologies like AI, blockchain, and satellite imagery should be utilized to expose fraudulent projects, prevent double billing, and detect unauthorized fund diversions. A Data Integrity Task Force should oversee statistical accuracy and penalize false reporting.

11. Youth Engagement and Anti-Corruption Education

The anti-corruption campaign must be generational. Civic education should include anti-corruption training from the primary school level upward. Budget-monitoring clubs and civic tech competitions should be encouraged in schools and universities.

Laws should mandate youth representation on procurement panels, FOI boards, and anti-corruption agencies. Public integrity must be presented to youth not only as a responsibility but as a prestigious career path.

12. Reforming Political Financing

Opaque campaign financing lies at the root of political corruption. Political parties must be compelled to disclose donor identities, fundraising activities, and expenditure reports in real time.

INEC and the Corporate Affairs Commission must coordinate efforts to track political financing, investigate shell entities, and prosecute financial violations. Campaign spending limits must be enforced, and political sponsors—often shadowy figures—should face public accountability.

Conclusion: A Government Deserving of Its Citizens

The Tinubu administration faces a critical decision: uphold the status quo of impunity or chart a bold course toward national renewal. The consequences of inaction are no longer hypothetical—they are visible in the form of deepening poverty, widespread insecurity, capital flight, eroded institutions, and international embarrassment.

At this point, reform is not just a matter of political will—it is a matter of national survival. While these changes may be difficult, costly, or politically sensitive, they are absolutely necessary to rebuild trust in government.

The Nigerian people deserve leadership that honors their resilience, not one that exploits their suffering. A leadership that builds rather than bleeds. A government grounded in justice—not merely as a slogan, but as lived reality.

The time for reform is now. Not in the next administration. Not at a future date. Now.

 

Epilogue: Beyond Reform – Building a Just Republic

Reform, though urgently required, is merely the prologue in Nigeria’s story of transformation. The true and more arduous challenge is not merely the dismantling of entrenched corruption but constructing a resilient political, economic, and social framework built upon the fundamental principle of human dignity. This noble goal requires a resolute national commitment, not just rhetorically, but practically demonstrated through ethical leadership, unwavering institutional independence, and genuinely inclusive governance.

A Civic Awakening: The Birth of a Movement

Across Nigeria, civil society is witnessing a powerful civic renaissance—a quiet yet profound revolution led by dedicated activists, investigative journalists, dynamic young entrepreneurs, artists, and everyday citizens who refuse to accept the limitations imposed by state failure. These courageous individuals are pioneering new paths toward accountability, leveraging civic technology to expose abuses, harnessing the power of digital storytelling to amplify marginalized voices, and bravely confronting injustice through sustained street protests and international advocacy.

This awakening, though unarmed and peaceful, resonates with immense power. It symbolizes the true spirit of democratic resilience and represents the fertile ground from which a genuinely just republic will emerge. This nascent civic revolution is fragile yet precious; it must be nurtured and protected, not ignored, suppressed, or criminalized by the powers that be.

The government, both present and future, must recognize this civic awakening not as a threat but as an invaluable partner in nation-building. Supporting civic voices means acknowledging their legitimacy, safeguarding their rights, and actively responding to their calls for transparency, justice, and meaningful change.

Institutional Culture Shift: Replacing Impunity with Integrity

Corruption in Nigeria is fundamentally not just a crisis of legal frameworks or enforcement gaps; it is fundamentally a crisis of cultural values. The nation desperately needs an institutional and cultural revolution that definitively moves away from a pervasive culture of impunity toward one that genuinely values integrity and public trust.

To accomplish this, Nigeria’s institutions require not mere cosmetic adjustments but deep, structural reengineering. Systems must be developed where honesty is openly rewarded, integrity publicly celebrated, and corruption swiftly and decisively punished. Laws alone cannot achieve this; it demands a fundamental shift in societal attitudes, public education, and institutional incentives.

This requires exemplary leadership across all levels of government and society. Political, business, and community leaders must not simply speak of transparency—they must embody it. Transparency and accountability cannot merely be tactical or political tools employed selectively; they must become habitual practices and intrinsic personal values consistently demonstrated by those entrusted with authority.

Healing the National Psyche: Beyond Policies and Promises

Decades of misrule and corruption have inflicted wounds far deeper than economic hardship. These injuries manifest vividly in the national psyche—evidenced by widespread disillusionment, pervasive mistrust in governance, and profound societal trauma. Millions of Nigerians bear the scars of state failure, enduring the lasting damage of unpaid pensions, unsafe streets, dilapidated infrastructure, collapsed schools, and shattered aspirations.

Healing these psychological and social wounds demands more than promises, policies, or spreadsheets full of impressive figures. It requires genuine empathy, active restitution, and tangible justice. Government services must be delivered fairly and equitably; policies must offer tangible relief, meaningful growth, and lasting improvements to people’s lives. Above all, governance must be deeply compassionate—demonstrating authentic care through visible acts of justice, fairness, and genuine responsiveness to people’s suffering.

Only through sustained efforts to restore trust and foster hope can the national psyche begin to mend. Healing the nation means investing not merely in infrastructure and economic growth, but in the dignity, emotional well-being, and fundamental humanity of every Nigerian.

A Generational Mandate: Deciding the Future

This enormous task is neither the exclusive responsibility of one political administration nor any single political party. It represents a generational mandate—an enduring collective responsibility that must transcend political divisions, ethnic identities, religious affiliations, and regional loyalties. Nigerians, both within the nation’s borders and in the diaspora, now face a defining question of national legacy: what sort of country will they leave for future generations?

The battle for reform is not limited to the halls of power or legislative chambers; it is fundamentally a moral and ethical struggle for Nigeria’s very soul. Every citizen, leader, and public servant must confront their role in shaping the nation’s destiny. Will we, as a generation, be remembered for turning our backs as Nigeria’s wounds bled openly, or will we become the courageous healers who stitched together the wounds, bravely confronted wrongdoing, and ultimately reclaimed a nation robbed of its potential?

The Choice Ahead: Legacy or Decay

The administration of President Tinubu—and those who follow—faces an unequivocal, existential choice: perpetuate the longstanding cycle of elite enrichment, state-sponsored corruption, and systemic decay or, conversely, demonstrate courage by standing unequivocally with the people. Nigeria’s leaders must choose decisively between reinforcing entrenched inequalities or taking the bold, necessary steps toward constructing a republic genuinely founded upon principles of justice, equity, dignity, and opportunity.

This decision is not merely academic or theoretical; it is deeply existential. The fate of millions of citizens, the stability of Nigerian democracy, and the integrity of the nation itself depend on this critical choice. Nigeria, as a nation, holds staggering, untapped potential, possessing rich human resources, abundant natural wealth, vibrant cultures, and immense global significance. However, without genuine, radical accountability, that potential risks remaining forever unrealized—a broken promise held captive by institutionalized greed and moral cowardice.

A Historical Verdict: Courage versus Complicity

History will judge this generation not merely by the enormity of what was stolen, but by what was permitted, tolerated, or ignored in the name of preserving power, privilege, or political convenience. Future generations will scrutinize not only those who actively looted public resources but also those who remained silent or complacent in the face of injustice, choosing complicity over courage, comfort over confrontation.

The moral imperative for Nigerians is clear: If Nigeria is to rise, it must rise upon the collective determination and courage of truth-tellers, dedicated reformers, tireless activists, and ordinary citizens unwilling to abandon the struggle for justice and accountability. A genuinely just republic will only be built through the unrelenting resolve of individuals who choose to speak truth to power, refuse to yield to despair, and insist that governance must serve the common good rather than private enrichment.

The journey toward a just republic begins now—not with promises or proclamations, but with sustained, courageous action; with collective vigilance and persistent demands for transparency and fairness; and with an unyielding commitment that Nigeria’s immense promise will finally, unequivocally, serve all its people.

The path ahead is neither easy nor guaranteed. But it remains profoundly achievable. Nigeria’s future hinges upon this critical decision: to embrace radical transparency, institutional integrity, and genuine accountability or succumb once again to apathy and corruption.

Nigerians are now at an important crossroads, needing to choose paths that reflect dignity, justice, and integrity. These decisions will shape both Nigeria’s future and the legacy it leaves behind.

References

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BudgIT. (2023) Status of the Open Treasury Portal: A Civic Tech Review. [Online] Available at: https://yourbudgit.com [Accessed 6 July 2025].

Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). (2023) Press Releases and Public Notices on Anti-Corruption Investigations. [Online] Available at: https://efcc.gov.ng [Accessed 6 July 2025].

Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC). (2023) Annual Report 2023. [Online] Available at: https://icpc.gov.ng [Accessed 6 July 2025].

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2023) 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index Report. [Online] Available at: https://nigerianstat.gov.ng [Accessed 6 July 2025].

NEITI – Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. (2023) Oil and Gas Industry Audit Report 2022–2023. Abuja: NEITI. [Online] Available at: https://neiti.gov.ng [Accessed 6 July 2025].

Premium Times Centre for Investigative Journalism. (2024) #BudgetOfFraud: Inside Nigeria’s Budget Padding Scandal. [Online] Available at: https://www.premiumtimesng.com [Accessed 6 July 2025].

SERAP – Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project. (2024) Court ruling in SERAP v. Federal Government on COVID-19 expenditure disclosure. [Online] Available at: https://serap-nigeria.org [Accessed 6 July 2025].

Tracka by BudgIT. (2024) 2024 Abandoned Projects Report: Tracking ₦912bn Across 36 States. [Online] Available at: https://tracka.ng [Accessed 6 July 2025].

Africa Digital News, New York

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